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Housing Market Update | Week of June 30th

Published: June 30, 2025

Updated: June 30, 2025

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Housing Market Update | Week of June 30th

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After holding steady for nearly the entire month of June, mortgage rates finally dropped last week. This slow downward trend was driven mainly by headlines from Fed Governors suggesting that it could be time for a rate cut, as well as President Trump stating his intention to pick Jerome Powell’s successor as Federal Reserve Chairman. There’s been a lot of pressure on the Fed to cut rates from outside voices, and this week could ramp up that pressure with the right data.

We have a short week ahead with the Fourth of July this Friday, but no shortage of data that could shift mortgage rates this week. It’s the last jobs week before the July 30th Fed Meeting, and if we want to see a rate cut in July, this week’s reports will need to show significant weakness in the labor market. Bad labor data this week would only increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

With markets closed on Friday and some big data coming Thursday morning, let’s connect early in the week to make sure our clients don’t get caught in any market volatility.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap

Rates Dropped

Mortgage rates finally dropped last week, but not because of Friday’s PCE inflation report. On Wednesday night, President Trump announced that he is considering nominating his pick to succeed Fed Chair Powell 11 months before Powell’s term ends. This move would undermine Powell and increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates. This caused the 10-year yield to dip, driving mortgage rates slightly lower.

This dip came to a halt on Friday morning as the PCE report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, showed that headline inflation rose 1% in May and 2.3% year-over-year. This was right in line with market estimates and prevented bonds from continuing to drop into the weekend.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast

Rates Could Be Volatile

This week is jobs week, with four major labor reports coming between Tuesday and Thursday. Continuing jobless claims, which record the number of people who have filed for and are currently receiving unemployment benefits, hit a 3-year high last week. This means that unemployed individuals are having a harder time finding a new job, which could hint at increasing weakness in the labor market. Here’s what’s coming this week:

  • Tuesday: Job Openings, Losses, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
  • Wednesday: ADP Employment Report
  • Thursday: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report, Initial Jobless Claims

The markets expect 120,000 jobs created in the ADP report and 115,000 in the BLS report, as well as an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. All signs point to a labor market that continues to weaken, but will this week’s data be weak enough to prompt the Fed to act this month? If we see weak labor data this week, the table is set for lower mortgage rates.

Typically, markets tend to overreact when a report like the BLS report is released the day before a 3-day weekend. While we might see rates drop, make sure to make sure to stay in touch with your UMortgage Loan Originator so your clients don’t get caught in any potential market volatility as they enjoy their July 4th festivities.

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Housing Market Update | Week of June 30th
After holding steady for nearly the entire month of June, mortgage rates finally dropped last week. This slow downward trend was driven mainly by headlines from Fed Governors suggesting that it could be time for a rate cut, as well as President Trump stating his intention to pick Jerome Powell’s successor as Federal Reserve Chairman. There’s been a lot of pressure on the Fed to cut rates from outside voices, and this week could ramp up that pressure with the right data. We have a short week ahead with the Fourth of July this Friday, but no shortage of data that could shift mortgage rates this week. It’s the last jobs week before the July 30th Fed Meeting, and if we want to see a rate cut in July, this week’s reports will need to show significant weakness in the labor market. Bad labor data this week would only increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates. With markets closed on Friday and some big data coming Thursday morning, let’s connect early in the week to make sure our clients don’t get caught in any market volatility. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Dropped Mortgage rates finally dropped last week, but not because of Friday’s PCE inflation report. On Wednesday night, President Trump announced that he is considering nominating his pick to succeed Fed Chair Powell 11 months before Powell’s term ends. This move would undermine Powell and increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates. This caused the 10-year yield to dip, driving mortgage rates slightly lower. This dip came to a halt on Friday morning as the PCE report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, showed that headline inflation rose 1% in May and 2.3% year-over-year. This was right in line with market estimates and prevented bonds from continuing to drop into the weekend. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Be Volatile This week is jobs week, with four major labor reports coming between Tuesday and Thursday. Continuing jobless claims, which record the number of people who have filed for and are currently receiving unemployment benefits, hit a 3-year high last week. This means that unemployed individuals are having a harder time finding a new job, which could hint at increasing weakness in the labor market. Here’s what’s coming this week: Tuesday: Job Openings, Losses, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Wednesday: ADP Employment Report Thursday: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report, Initial Jobless Claims The markets expect 120,000 jobs created in the ADP report and 115,000 in the BLS report, as well as an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. All signs point to a labor market that continues to weaken, but will this week’s data be weak enough to prompt the Fed to act this month? If we see weak labor data this week, the table is set for lower mortgage rates. Typically, markets tend to overreact when a report like the BLS report is released the day before a 3-day weekend. While we might see rates drop, make sure to make sure to stay in touch with your UMortgage Loan Originator so your clients don’t get caught in any potential market volatility as they enjoy their July 4th festivities.
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