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How the 2025 Inauguration Impacted the Housing Market

President Donald Trump officially took office for his second term on January 20th, 2025. From day one, the new administration outlined its priorities for housing, inflation, and economic growth. As these policies take shape, here is an overview of how they might influence the housing market and the broader economy. Housing Affordability: A Focus on Reducing Costs During his campaign, President Trump pledged to address housing affordability by cutting regulations and introducing tax incentives aimed at reducing construction costs. These measures are intended to stimulate new home construction and increase housing supply, potentially helping to stabilize high home prices. On the night of his inauguration, the administration released a memorandum regarding an executive order addressing housing relief. The memo stated, “Many Americans are unable to purchase homes due to historically high prices, in part due to regulatory requirements that alone account for 25 percent of the cost of constructing a new home according to recent analysis.” Trump has already followed through on his promise to start cutting regulations on the first day of his second term. The aforementioned executive order includes a freeze on government hiring and the creation of new federal regulations. Additionally, a newly established Department of Government Efficiency will review federal agencies and identify opportunities for regulatory cuts. One such agency is the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), now led by Scott Turner—a former Texas state representative and executive director of the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council. Turner has expressed a commitment to maximizing existing resources but has not yet detailed plans for federal investments in affordable housing programs. The department’s future budget and priorities will become clearer as the administration’s broader fiscal policies are implemented. Tariffs and Their Potential Effects on Housing Costs A significant area of focus for the administration is the proposed implementation of tariffs. While these measures aim to protect domestic industries, they may also increase the cost of construction materials, potentially driving up prices for new homes and contributing to inflation. President Trump announced plans to enact tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting February 1st, alongside higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Economists warn that these tariffs could lead to higher costs for homebuilders. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 70% of sawmill and wood product imports come from Canada, which already faces a 14.5% tariff.Another report from the NAHB shared that China provided the largest share of imported goods used in residential construction at 27%, making homebuilders particularly sensitive to trade policies. Tariffs could also influence mortgage rates through their impact on inflation. A report by Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that a 10% universal tariff could increase inflation by approximately 0.8% in 2025. Rising inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates, further affecting the housing market. Tax Proposals and Household Finances The Trump administration has proposed extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and introducing new tax reforms, including exemptions for tip income, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits, as well as deductions for auto loan interest. While these measures could increase disposable income for many Americans, the potential rise in consumer goods prices due to tariffs could offset these benefits. During his inaugural address, President Trump reiterated his commitment to policies that prioritize American workers and families, stating, “Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, [and] on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families.” However, none of the executive orders signed on January 20th directly addressed tax reforms, leaving questions about the timeline for implementing these proposals. Federal Reserve’s Role in the Housing Market The Federal Reserve has been actively working to maintain a healthy jobs market while completing its coveted "soft landing" for the fall of inflation. Although tariffs create worries about inflation, the Fed seems to have concerns about the impact of mortgage rates rising above 7%, as indicated by a statement from Fed President Christopher Waller during an appearance with CNBC. Likely part of this is the impact that high mortgage rates have on construction jobs. In previous economic cycles where the Fed maintained high mortgage rates, homebuilders began laying off construction workers, and a recession closely followed. Of course, economic health will remain a priority, and rates will continue to be largely driven by inflation and the labor market. As things stand, jobless claims data remains at historic lows while inflation has fluctuated between 2.5% and 2.9% in the final months of Biden's presidency. What Lies Ahead for Homebuyers The coming months will reveal the extent to which these policies impact housing affordability, mortgage rates, and overall economic growth. While some measures, like tax reforms and regulatory cuts, aim to increase homeownership opportunities, others, such as tariffs, may introduce cost pressures. If you’re considering buying a home or refinancing, now may be a good time to explore your options. Connect with a UMortgage Loan Originator in your area to get personalized guidance tailored to your financial goals.

Published January 21, 2025

Market Update

Housing Market Update | Week of January 20th

Great news—mortgage rates dropped last week! This slight drop was caused by several different factors, including softer-than-expected inflation data, comments from a Fed President regarding potentially revised monetary policy, and a general shift in market sentiment. Rates should remain relatively steady this week, with the 20-year Bond Auction on Wednesday and the Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday unlikely to cause a major shift. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Dropped! After a poor start to the year with mortgage rates rising above 7%, we finally got some relief last week. The 10-year started the week at its highest level in nearly a year; because of this, inflation data needed to outperform expectations to maintain or increase. When the CPI report showed core inflation came below expectations, bond yields fell. Another factor that caused rates to drop was Fed President Christopher Waller. Speaking to CNBC last week, he said, “If inflation continues on this path through the beginning of 2025, it’s reasonable to think that possibly rate cuts could happen in the first half of the year.” Whether we see a rate cut in the first half of the year will depend on labor and inflation data, but this slight change in sentiment from the Fed is at least a positive sign. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Should Be Steady Compared to the past two weeks, this week should be relatively quiet in terms of market-shifting data with the 20-year Bond Auction and jobless claims standing as the most significant pieces of data. The jobless claims report is one of the bigger indicators of the direction of interest rates in 2025, so any movements will likely occur after that report’s release on Thursday. This also marks the first full week of the new Trump administration, and the markets will surely keep a keen eye on what he and his cabinet have to say. Reach out to a UMortgage Loan Originator to help answer any housing-related questions you may have!

Published January 20, 2025

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Kristy Lynn

David is absolutely wonderful! He made this entire process in getting a VA Loan as simple as it could have possibly been for my first mortgage! I have and will continue to recommend him to every Veteran I know. Thank you for everything, David.

Jodi Granger

Vinnie was recommended to me and I'm so thrilled I got to work with him. He led me every step of the way going above and beyond. He answered every question I had and always responded quickly regardless of the time. If I ever buy again he is my number 1 go to. I couldn't have done it without him. I own the place of my dreams because of him! Thank you, Vinnie for everything!

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I had a difficult mortgage due to county issues etc. Fortunately I also had the best people working for me. You'll never regret a moment having Corey on your side. He's so dedicated to the customer, keeps you up-to-date on everything, and is just one hell of a guy. I have my first home because Corey made it happen, and I couldn't thank him enough. This guy is truly top of his game and I'm blessed to have had him on my team.

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I can't say enough good things about Vinnie. If you want someone that contacts you right away and is there for you and your buyers the entire time through the whole process then you have to talk to Vinnie and see for yourself. My buyers are always very pleased with his professionalism and efficiency. He definitely goes the extra mile for them. They appreciate it and so do I.

Dominique Bell

Nicole was an absolute pleasure to work with! From the first conversation we had I knew we were going to be a great team for our buyer. She is thorough and communicates each step throughout the entire process up until closing day and she got my buyer $10k in grants! Thank you Nicole for all your hard work!

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Brian and his team are amazing. From the first time I met Brian, he took the time to explain every step of the process with great patience and knowledge. I can honestly say I never expected for this process to feel so easy but Brian made it possible. I will always be thankful for all the support provided.

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My family had a fantastic experience with Sunnie! Extremely capable and supportive, she helped us through the whole process with ease and a personal touch. We can't thank her enough! Even years after we closed our home, she still provides us with advice and encouragement. Thank you Sunnie!

Miranda Adams

I went through UMortgage using a VA home loan, and the agents I worked with were amazing! They worked all hours to help us get into a house and we were able to close in under 30 days! Amazing communication from both team members involved, Melly and Andy. They really made the difference in us being able to buy our first home. Huge thank you to the UMortgage team!

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UMortgage is a national mortgage company that connects you with experienced mortgage brokers in your area. UMortgage's local Loan Officers use UMortgage's vast portfolio of lenders and loan products to ensure you get the most affordable mortgage possible that is tailored to your individual financial needs and homeownership goals.

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How the 2025 Inauguration Impacted the Housing Market