Housing Market Update | Week of April 22

Last week’s inflation data came in a little hotter than expected and, combined with slowed GDP growth and low jobless claims, mortgage rates rose slightly last week. With inflation moving in the wrong direction the last three months, there will be a much bigger emphasis on the job market breaking for the Fed to cut rates this year. We have three big pieces of employment data coming this week as well as the Federal Reserve’s 2-day May meeting ending on Wednesday, so expect some movements this week. Next week, May 6th at 11:30am, we are recapping the Federal Reserve meeting during a special edition of our Monday Market Update. Our resident market experts will recap the meeting and review what was said by Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, to provide a look ahead at what we can expect with the summer housing market. This event will be free to stream live on YouTube, follow this link and subscribe for a notification when we go live! Last Week's Rate Recap - Rates Rose Slightly The Federal Reserve has been trying to slow the rate of inflation since 2022, but last week’s PCE data showed that we are continuing to trend away from their target of 2.7%. Although the PCE report came in as expected, it still sent stocks and mortgage bonds higher and put increased pressure on labor data to get our desired rate cuts this year. This Week's Rate Forecast - Rates Could Be Volatile This week we have two main areas of focus for the housing market and mortgage rates. Tomorrow and Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its May Fed Meeting. Although a rate cut is unfortunately all but off the table, Jerome Powell’s press conference will give us insight into their path forward. We also have multiple labor reports, and, as we mentioned earlier, an increase in unemployment will be key for any future rate cuts. We’ll have the ADP employment report on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and the BLS jobs report on Friday, so expect some volatility in the second half of the week. Once again, our market experts will be offering a full breakdown of the Fed Meeting and how the decisions made and rhetoric released will impact the housing market next Monday at 11:30am ET on YouTube live. This presentation is free to stream and will offer loads of educational insight that will help empower you this purchase season. You can watch this and all our weekly Market Update streams right here on the UMortgage YouTube channel!

Last week, mortgage rates rose again due to decreased confidence in a rate cut by Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. The current strong economy & labor market, stagnation with inflation figures, and rising conflict in the Middle East are all contributing factors preventing rates from dropping. Friday’s PCE report will provide some foresight into the length at which the Fed will want rates to stay higher for greater economic health. Although we all want lower rates, there has still never been a better time for our clients to buy. Inventory is starting to rise, and less competition means our buyers are more likely to have an offer accepted at a price that works better for them. We launched my new pre-approval form today; this will help our buyers hit the market with an accurate budget in a snap. Share my new pre-approval form with any interested buyers to help them get started!  Mortgage rates rose again last week largely due to statements from Jerome Powell that indicated a lower possibility of rate cuts anytime soon. In an appearance at the Washington Forum, Powell cited a strong economy and labor market preventing rate cuts. As has been the case this year, a sharp rise in jobless claims will be what it takes to catalyze rate cuts this year. The big-ticket item in the housing market this week will be the Fed’s preferred measuring stick for inflation: the PCE report. The Fed has been targeting inflation at 2% for more than a year; it’s expected that headline inflation will sit just above 2.7% after Friday’s report. With inflation stalling, it will likely take a higher unemployment rate for the Fed to move forward with rate cuts. The first step to an easy homebuying experience for our clients starts with a pre-approval that gives them an accurate estimate of their buying power. It’s never been easier to get pre-approved with my brand-new custom pre-approval form. Feel free to share it with any prospective clients who are itching to start their homebuying journey!