Mortgages Can Be Complicated, but We Have You Covered.

The final Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 is this week, with the Fed’s decision on a potential third consecutive rate cut coming Wednesday afternoon. Markets are currently 90% in favor of a cut, a number that’s steadily risen from 30% over the last 3 weeks. Driving expectations of a rate cut are weak labor market data and tame inflation data, both of which we got last week. As economists await the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs reports that were delayed by the government shutdown, more eyes are on the ADP’s private payroll report. That November ADP employment report showed that private employers shed 32,000 jobs, a major miss after expectations of 40,000 jobs created. Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report came right in line with expectations, but the fact that this was the report for September lessened its impact. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Dropped Marginally We had two big economic data releases last week: the ADP’s monthly private payroll report and the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. The ADP report came in significantly lower than expected, posting 32,000 job losses despite predictions of 40,000 jobs created. This -72,000 swing brought the 10-year lower but didn’t sway mortgage rates. The PCE report came in line with expectations on Friday, setting the stage for a Fed rate cut and helping mortgage rates finish the week fractionally lower than where they started. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Be Volatile We have a big week ahead with our final Fed Meeting of the year happening on Wednesday. Currently, markets are giving it a ~90% chance of a cut. Typically, markets will price in a rate cut preemptively, leading to larger drops in the lead-up to a Fed rate cut. However, the 10-year has fluctuated between 4% and 4.1% over the last month and risen to 4.18% this morning. Here are our two most likely paths forward: If the Fed cuts as expected… The 10-year Treasury should stay in roughly the same neighborhood (around 4.0–4.2%), or drop lower if markets read the tone as more dovish than expected. Mortgage rates could see some downward pressure into year-end, but big moves would still depend on what we learn from the delayed November jobs report on December 16 and upcoming inflation releases. For your buyers, that would be a mildly supportive backdrop: not a massive rate drop, but a chance to lock in near recent lows if they’re ready to move in early 2026. If the Fed doesn’t cut… The 10-year yield could move higher in the near term as traders reprice the path of cuts in 2026. Mortgage rates could rise from current levels until the October/November BLS report and other delayed data (like CPI) provide a clearer picture of how much the labor market has actually cooled. The wildcard is that the Fed is making this decision before it sees the official November jobs data, which won’t hit until December 16, so Powell’s press conference guidance will carry even more weight than usual. If you have any questions or want some real-time market analysis from a mortgage expert, follow this link to connect with a UMortgage Loan Originator near you!

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history officially ended on November 12, bringing long-awaited clarity to financial markets that have been flying blind since the shutdown began on October 1. For more than six weeks, key government agencies didn't release critical economic data, such as jobs reports and inflation readings, leaving the Federal Reserve and investors without their usual guideposts. As this data finally returns, we can expect market activity to pick back up and mortgage rates to start moving again. When Will Economic Data Be Released? The government shutdown delayed the release of several weekly & monthly economic reports essential to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, including the PCE and CPI inflation reports and the monthly BLS jobs report, which are typically the most impactful. When the shutdown ends, what happens to those reports? Let’s break it down. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report: The September CPI report, originally scheduled for October 15, was released on October 24 as a requirement for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments. It showed core CPI increased by 0.3%. The October report was originally due on November 13th, but because that data hasn’t been collected yet, it will likely be delayed until December. The November report is due December 10th, and we could see the October print included. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report: The September BLS jobs report was initially scheduled to be released on October 3rd. The data for this report were collected before the shutdown began, so it’s likely to be released between November 17 and 21. As for the October jobs report, the BLS will need to survey companies and individual households. We likely won’t get this report until December. The November BLS report is currently scheduled for release on December 5. The BLS surveys businesses and households for its monthly reports starting the week containing the 12th day of the month. Given that the government will reopen on November 17th, the November jobs report may be delayed by a week. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report: It’s important to note that PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report. September’s PCE report was initially scheduled to be released on October 31st. It’s likely to be delayed until late this month. The October PCE report, initially due November 26th, will likely be delayed until mid-to-late December. How will rates move when this data is released? So far this year, the average mortgage rate has dropped by a full percentage point. What’s driven this drop has been a steadily deteriorating jobs market as seen from the BLS data since May this year. The Fed specifically cited the labor market as the reason for the rate cuts we saw in September and October. Inflation also remains a concern and will need to either drop or stay under relative control in the PCE and CPI reports. When these reports are released, we’ll likely see some market volatility. If the BLS labor data is weak and/or inflation doesn’t rise quickly, rates should go down. If the labor market shows signs of improvement or inflation starts to rise out of control, rates might rise. How to navigate the rate market for the rest of 2025 The best way to protect yourself against a volatile housing market is to work with experienced mortgage professionals whom you can trust. UMortgage has Loan Originators licensed nationwide and ready to help you time the market & maximize the wealth-building benefits of homeownership. Ready to get started? Fill out this form to get connected with a Loan Originator near you.

If you're planning to buy a home in 2025, there are several important factors to consider and steps to take that will help ensure your success. Various trends will influence home affordability and your ability to purchase the home you want without stretching your budget. So, what can we expect regarding mortgage rates? Will there be an increase in available homes on the market next year? Additionally, there are specific actions every homebuyer should start taking now to prepare for 2025. Let’s break it down to help you navigate this market with confidence. Will Mortgage Rates Drop in 2025? The questions asked by homebuyer and real estate agent is where mortgage rates are heading in 2025. Although nobody has a crystal ball, many reliable experts predict them to drop over the course of the year. If you're planning to buy a home in 2025, there are several important factors to consider and steps to take that will help ensure your success. Various trends will influence home affordability and your ability to purchase the home you desire without stretching your budget. How much mortgage rates drop will depend on ever-shifting market factors such as inflation, unemployment, wage growth, economic growth, and the possibility of a recession. Sourcing data from reputable sources such as Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), HousingWire, and MBS Highway, it’s expected that rates will drop slightly next year but remain in a range between 5.75% and 7.25%. These figures are dependent on the economic factors previously mentioned, and it could take until the second half of the year to see rates in the low end of that range. Mortgage rates can directly impact your overall budget; check out this home affordability calculator to learn more. If you want to buy in 2025, it’s important to connect with a UMortgage Loan Originator as early as possible to take advantage when market opportunities arise. More Homes and More Buyers on the Market in 2025 Housing inventory, specifically a lack thereof, has been one of the main drivers of the housing market these last 3 years. Throughout the year, we’ve seen inventory numbers steadily rise to highs not seen since the summer of 2020. As of the end of November, we have 27% higher single-family housing inventory than this time last year. This rise is expected to continue to increase in 2025, and it’s partly due to the forecast that rates will drop slightly across the year. According to Mike Fratatoni, Chief Economist and SVP for Research and Business Development at the MBA, “mortgage rates at this level should support homebuyer demand and gradually reduce the lock-in effect, thereby increasing the inventory of existing homes and supporting higher purchase origination volume in 2025.” More sustainable inventory is great news for homebuyers. Not only does this mean more options to shop from, but it also gives more negotiation power for many homebuyers to get an asking price that works for their financial picture. How to Prepare to Buy a Home in 2025 Buying a home is a big commitment, but there are plenty of things you can start doing now to put yourself in the driver’s seat when it comes time to buy in 2025. Below are a few strategies that will help you be one of the strongest buyers on the market next year. Start Saving for a Down Payment: A higher down payment will help you secure the lowest possible mortgage rate and can significantly lower your monthly mortgage payment. It’s possible to buy with as little as 3% down for conventional loans (and 0% down for a VA loan), but a higher down payment will open up more possibilities. Build and Maintain a High Credit Score: Like with a higher down payment, a higher credit score will be key to getting you the lowest possible mortgage rate. Building credit is easier than you might think: make sure you pay all of your monthly debts on time and, if possible, keep balances as close to $0 as possible. Read this guide for more credit-building tips. Get a Mortgage Pre-Approval: Your golden ticket in the homebuying process is a mortgage pre-approval. This will give you an accurate estimate of your buying power and will show sellers and listing agents that you’re a serious buyer. Fill out this form to start your free pre-approval today! The Importance of Working With a Local Expert It’s looking like the 2025 housing market will bring some balance that should make affordable homeownership more accessible. However, the best way to ensure a sensible home purchase in 2025 is to work with local mortgage and real estate experts who can help you navigate the ebbs and flows of the market. A knowledgeable real estate agent in your area will understand home prices by neighborhood and the areas where home prices appreciate the most. This expert guidance will help you spot deals, avoid overpaying for a property, and ensure that your home is an investment that grows your financial power over time. When you work with a UMortgage Loan Originator, you’ll gain a partner who will help you maximize the wealth-building benefits of homeownership. Throughout your homebuying process, your LO will learn more about you to make sure your mortgage matches your short- and long-term financial goals. Even after you’ve closed your loan, your LO will stay in touch to share refinance opportunities that will ensure you have the lowest possible mortgage payment and can use the equity you’ve earned to grow your financial portfolio. If you’re ready to start preparing to buy a home and unlock financial freedom through homeownership, follow this link to get connected with a UMortgage LO today!

Buying a home just got a little easier (and more affordable)! Starting in 2025, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expanding their appraisal waiver programs, which allow buyers to skip the traditional appraisal process. The updates mean buyers can qualify for waivers with loans up to 90% loan-to-value (LTV), and new inspection-based waivers will push that threshold to 97%. That means if you’re putting as little as 3% down, you could save time, hassle, and hundreds—if not thousands—of dollars. These programs have already saved buyers billions in fees and the upcoming changes promise even bigger benefits. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or simply looking to save, here’s what you need to know about how these new guidelines can help. What’s an Appraisal Waiver, and Why Should You Care? An appraisal waiver replaces the need for a traditional home appraisal with a high-tech, data-driven valuation. Instead of scheduling an appraiser to inspect the property (and paying hundreds of dollars), the waiver uses public records, historical data, and algorithms to estimate the home’s value. This innovation isn’t just convenient—it’s a big money-saver. Freddie Mac’s ACE (Automated Collateral Evaluation) program has already saved buyers $1.63 billion in fees, and Fannie Mae’s Value Acceptance has topped $2.5 billion in savings. Plus, skipping the appraisal can shave weeks off your closing timeline, which is especially helpful in competitive markets where speed matters. How This Helps Save Homebuyers Thousands Appraisals are, in most cases, an essential part of the homebuying process. By determining the true market value of a home, buyers can be protected from overpaying for a home. However, in highly competitive markets, things like appraisal gaps can cost borrowers thousands of dollars if multiple offers bring the asking price above the appraised value. By expanding the eligibility for waivers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making it easier—and cheaper—for more buyers to get into their dream homes without having to worry about those potentially costly appraisal gaps. This is a game-changer for first-time buyers or anyone on a tight budget. Not only does it reduce upfront costs, but it also speeds up the timeline to close, helping you secure your new home faster. And with billions of dollars already saved, it’s clear these programs deliver real value. Whether you’re buying your first home or upgrading to your forever home, these expanded waiver options could save you time, money, and stress. What’s New in 2025? Big news: Starting in 2025, the eligibility for appraisal waivers is expanding. Loans with up to 90% LTV will qualify for standard appraisal waivers, up from the previous cap of 80%. Even better, inspection-based waivers—like Freddie Mac’s ACE+ PDR program—will allow loans with up to 97% LTV, so buyers with as little as 3% down can avoid appraisals entirely. Here’s how it works: With an inspection-based waiver, a quick on-site review of the property replaces the traditional appraisal. It’s faster, cheaper, and just as reliable. For buyers, this means fewer hoops to jump through and more money in your pocket to put toward your new home. If you want to use these benefits to expand your homebuying horizons in 2025, get connected with a UMortgage Loan Originator today to start your homebuying journey!