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Housing Market Update | Week of November 3rd

Just as we expected, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% during last week’s October Fed Meeting. Despite the hawkish tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference, mortgage rates remained relatively flat. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.97% before the Fed meeting to 4.08% by the end of the day on Friday. The good news is that the bond market and mortgage rates aren’t acting the same way they did after back-to-back Fed rate cuts in 2024. Several factors have contributed to this decline in rates, but none more so than the deterioration of the labor market. To see rates drop further, though, we’ll need the government shutdown to end so we can receive the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly jobs report before the next Fed Meeting on December 10th. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Were Flat The Federal Reserve slashed the fed funds rate by 0.25% last week, marking back-to-back rate cuts at Fed Meetings for the first time since the end of 2024. Unlike last year, though, mortgage rates haven’t risen out of control directly following the rate cut. There are a few reasons for this. A lot can be attributed to improved mortgage spreads, but the biggest reason is a different economic complexion. This year, five of our eight reports have reported more than 100k jobs created, but only one exceeded 200k; the three reports between June and August reported just 88,000 combined jobs created. Compare that to last year, where 10 months reported six-figure job growth, with eight at +200k. Without our September jobs numbers (initially scheduled for release on October 3 and delayed due to the government shutdown), the Fed is partially flying blind. Because of this, Powell was quick to push back on expectations of a third straight rate cut during the December Fed Meeting. His hawkish tone sent rates higher and confirmed what we already knew: we need to see more weak labor market data for rates to keep falling. To get those numbers, we need the government shutdown to end as soon as possible. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Move Slightly After minimal movement following last week’s Fed Meeting, it will be important to see how the market reacts early this week. We’re on day 34 of the government shutdown, and if it extends to Wednesday, it will be the longest on record. Every day this continues is another day without labor metrics crucial to the Fed’s monetary policy, and with many government workers now going through another pay period without a paycheck, the economic impact of this shutdown is becoming more widespread. We will, at the very least, see private payroll data in Wednesday’s ADP Employment Report. Although this doesn’t tell the whole story for the labor market, it’s still our de facto jobs report in the absence of BLS data. Markets are expecting a meager 24,000 jobs created in the ADP report, up from last month’s negative report, but still exceptionally low. Another wrinkle throughout the week will be speeches from various Fed members. Ten of the 12 members voted to lower the federal funds rate by 0.25%, but Powell suggested less unanimity for another cut in December. If these speeches match Powell’s hawkish tone from last Wednesday, we could see the 10-year go higher. If you have any questions or want some real-time market analysis from a mortgage expert, follow this link to connect with a UMortgage Loan Originator near you!

Published November 3, 2025

News

How the 2025 Government Shutdown Affects the Housing Market

On October 1st, 2025, a shutdown of the federal government began. Believe it or not, government shutdowns can have a multifaceted impact on the housing industry and mortgages. To help you be prepared and stay in the know, here’s how the mortgage process and the housing market are affected. Quick Answer Closings haven’t stopped, but some files will move more slowly. FHA and VA are largely operating (with some limits), conventional loans continue to move under GSE guidance, USDA loans for new approvals are paused, and a lapse in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) can block some flood-zone closings. Key economic reports are delayed, which can make mortgage rates prone to increased volatility when the shutdown ends. How a Government Shutdown Impacts Mortgage Rates During a shutdown, we get a “data blackout” from federal statistical agencies. For example, the September BLS labor report, which is typically one of the bigger market movers, was not released as scheduled on October 3rd. Other reports have been delayed; for example, our September CPI inflation report has been pushed to October 24, 2025. With no economic data leading up to our next Fed Meeting on October 29, the markets can’t fully forecast whether the Fed will cut, which could result in fewer gradual movements and more rate swings. Loan Programs: What’s Running and What’s Slowed Non-government-backed loan programs, such as Conventional Loans, will not be impacted by the government shutdown. Specific government-backed programs, like FHA loans and VA loans, are largely unaffected, but delays may occur. This shutdown most heavily impacts USDA loans. USDA Rural Development’s Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program largely pauses new activity. If a valid conditional commitment was already issued, some closings may proceed; otherwise, new USDA approvals will wait until staff return. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) The NFIP’s authority lapsed on September 30, 2025. Existing policies remain in force until expiration, but because of the shutdown, no new or renewed NFIP policies can be issued during the lapse. This can halt closings in flood zones that require NFIP coverage until reauthorization. Underwriting & Operations Delays If you’re a federal employee or contractor affected by a furlough, your loan may still be eligible. GSE guidance allows temporary flexibilities around employment verification; some files may need extra reserves if the shutdown extends. If you’re a prospective homebuyer wondering if a government shutdown will impact your homebuying or refinance process, or a real estate agent concerned with the impact this shutdown may have on your buyers, get in touch with a UMortgage Loan Originator for expert advice. They’ll be able to tell you how to navigate the market, act proactively to avoid delays, and find alternate solutions to help you close on time or as quickly as possible.

Published October 17, 2025

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David is absolutely wonderful! He made this entire process in getting a VA Loan as simple as it could have possibly been for my first mortgage! I have and will continue to recommend him to every Veteran I know. Thank you for everything, David.

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Meredith Smith

My family had a fantastic experience with Sunnie! Extremely capable and supportive, she helped us through the whole process with ease and a personal touch. We can't thank her enough! Even years after we closed our home, she still provides us with advice and encouragement. Thank you Sunnie!

Miranda Adams

I went through UMortgage using a VA home loan, and the agents I worked with were amazing! They worked all hours to help us get into a house and we were able to close in under 30 days! Amazing communication from both team members involved, Melly and Andy. They really made the difference in us being able to buy our first home. Huge thank you to the UMortgage team!

Nathalie Montes

I’ve had the pleasure of working with Lisa over the past year, and I can confidently say she is one of the best lenders in the industry. Her expertise with a wide range of loan products and dedication to finding the best solutions for my clients truly set her apart. Lisa goes above and beyond to secure excellent rates while ensuring a smooth, professional, and timely process from start to finish. If you’re looking for a knowledgeable, responsive, and trustworthy lender, Lisa is the one to call! I look forward to continuing our partnership and highly recommend her to anyone in need of a top-notch mortgage expert.

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UMortgage is a national mortgage company that connects you with experienced mortgage brokers in your area. UMortgage's local Loan Officers use UMortgage's vast portfolio of lenders and loan products to ensure you get the most affordable mortgage possible that is tailored to your individual financial needs and homeownership goals.

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Turn times vary from client to client, but UMortgage proudly gets clients from loan application (after you've had an offer accepted on a home) to the closing table in 2 weeks. You can read this blog for more insight into UMortgage's homebuying process.

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Housing Market Update | Week of November 3rd

How the 2025 Government Shutdown Affects the Housing Market