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Market Update

What Happens to Mortgage Rates When the Government Shutdown Ends?

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history looks set to end in the coming days, bringing long-awaited clarity to financial markets that have been flying blind since October 1. For more than six weeks, key government agencies haven’t released critical economic data, such as jobs reports and inflation readings, leaving the Federal Reserve and investors without their usual guideposts. As this data finally returns, we can expect market activity to pick back up and mortgage rates to start moving again. When Will Economic Data Be Released? The government shutdown delayed the release of several weekly & monthly economic reports essential to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, including the PCE and CPI inflation reports and the monthly BLS jobs report, which are typically the most impactful. When the shutdown ends, what happens to those reports? Let’s break it down. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report: The September CPI report, originally scheduled for October 15, was released on October 24 as a requirement for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments. It showed core CPI increased by 0.3%. The October report was originally due on November 13th, but because that data hasn’t been collected yet, it will likely be delayed until December. The November report is due December 10th, and we could see the October print included. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report: The September BLS jobs report was initially scheduled to be released on October 3rd. The data for this report were collected before the shutdown began, so it’s likely to be released between November 17 and 21. As for the October jobs report, the BLS will need to survey companies and individual households. We likely won’t get this report until December. The November BLS report is currently scheduled for release on December 5. The BLS surveys businesses and households for its monthly reports starting the week containing the 12th day of the month. Given that the government will reopen on November 17th, the November jobs report may be delayed by a week. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report: It’s important to note that PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report. September’s PCE report was initially scheduled to be released on October 31st. It’s likely to be delayed until late this month. The October PCE report, initially due November 26th, will likely be delayed until mid-to-late December. How will rates move when this data is released? So far this year, the average mortgage rate has dropped by a full percentage point. What’s driven this drop has been a steadily deteriorating jobs market as seen from the BLS data since May this year. The Fed specifically cited the labor market as the reason for the rate cuts we saw in September and October. Inflation also remains a concern and will need to either drop or stay under relative control in the PCE and CPI reports. When these reports are released, we’ll likely see some market volatility. If the BLS labor data is weak and/or inflation doesn’t rise quickly, rates should go down. If the labor market shows signs of improvement or inflation starts to rise out of control, rates might rise. How to navigate the rate market for the rest of 2025 The best way to protect yourself against a volatile housing market is to work with experienced mortgage professionals whom you can trust. UMortgage has Loan Originators licensed nationwide and ready to help you time the market & maximize the wealth-building benefits of homeownership. Ready to get started? Fill out this form to get connected with a Loan Originator near you.

Published November 12, 2025

Market Update

Housing Market Update | Week of November 10th

Mortgage rates have been relatively flat since the Fed cut the fed funds rate in late October. The government shutdown has now prevented the release of two consecutive months of economic data, leaving markets without the necessary insight to inform monetary policy. There are murmurs that an agreement to end the shutdown is in the works, with hopes of a House vote on Wednesday. Once the shutdown ends, it will take a few weeks for our missing data to be released; if that data shows continued labor market weakness, the 10-year and mortgage rates should go lower. A quick reminder, markets are closed in observance of Veterans Day tomorrow. And if you’re curious, we’ll touch on the news of a potential 50-year mortgage below. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Were Flat Mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield both finished the week essentially unchanged from the start of the week. Last week was supposed to be jobs week, but the BLS jobs report was delayed again because of the ongoing government shutdown. We did get private payroll data from ADP; the moderately positive report sent the 10-year a little higher on Wednesday before it fell back to 4.1% on Friday. The ADP report ultimately doesn’t tell the whole story about the labor market, mainly because it doesn’t cover government jobs, which will have a significant economic impact given the length of the shutdown. Friday also saw President Trump and FHFA Director Bill Pulte confirm that the administration is working on a 50-year mortgage. No other details were provided, but we do know that restrictions under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Consumer Protection Act’s Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule don’t currently allow a 50-year mortgage. As of right now, I’d suggest taking the announcement with a grain of salt. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Move Slightly As of right now, it could be a relatively quiet week. Markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Veterans Day. Wednesday through Friday, we’ll hear from several members of the Fed. But the most significant potential market mover this week would be an end to the government shutdown; rumors suggest a House vote could take place on Wednesday. When the government reopens, it’ll be a slower trickle of these reports. We’ll get the September economic reports, which were due to be released in early October, within days of the end of the shutdown. However, the October reports (scheduled for release last week & this week) may be completely foregone, as the window for collecting October data may have closed. Regardless, for rates to keep falling, the reports we receive will need to show that the labor market continues to shrink and that inflation remains under control. If you have any questions or want some real-time market analysis from a mortgage expert, follow this link to connect with a UMortgage Loan Originator near you!

Published November 10, 2025

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Kristy Lynn

David is absolutely wonderful! He made this entire process in getting a VA Loan as simple as it could have possibly been for my first mortgage! I have and will continue to recommend him to every Veteran I know. Thank you for everything, David.

Raymond Gummer

I had a difficult mortgage due to county issues etc. Fortunately I also had the best people working for me. You'll never regret a moment having Corey on your side. He's so dedicated to the customer, keeps you up-to-date on everything, and is just one hell of a guy. I have my first home because Corey made it happen, and I couldn't thank him enough. This guy is truly top of his game and I'm blessed to have had him on my team.

Susan Lenhardt

I can't say enough good things about Vinnie. If you want someone that contacts you right away and is there for you and your buyers the entire time through the whole process then you have to talk to Vinnie and see for yourself. My buyers are always very pleased with his professionalism and efficiency. He definitely goes the extra mile for them. They appreciate it and so do I.

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Dominique Bell

Nicole was an absolute pleasure to work with! From the first conversation we had I knew we were going to be a great team for our buyer. She is thorough and communicates each step throughout the entire process up until closing day and she got my buyer $10k in grants! Thank you Nicole for all your hard work!

Yuritt Pasos

Brian and his team are amazing. From the first time I met Brian, he took the time to explain every step of the process with great patience and knowledge. I can honestly say I never expected for this process to feel so easy but Brian made it possible. I will always be thankful for all the support provided.

Meredith Smith

My family had a fantastic experience with Sunnie! Extremely capable and supportive, she helped us through the whole process with ease and a personal touch. We can't thank her enough! Even years after we closed our home, she still provides us with advice and encouragement. Thank you Sunnie!

Miranda Adams

I went through UMortgage using a VA home loan, and the agents I worked with were amazing! They worked all hours to help us get into a house and we were able to close in under 30 days! Amazing communication from both team members involved, Melly and Andy. They really made the difference in us being able to buy our first home. Huge thank you to the UMortgage team!

Nathalie Montes

I’ve had the pleasure of working with Lisa over the past year, and I can confidently say she is one of the best lenders in the industry. Her expertise with a wide range of loan products and dedication to finding the best solutions for my clients truly set her apart. Lisa goes above and beyond to secure excellent rates while ensuring a smooth, professional, and timely process from start to finish. If you’re looking for a knowledgeable, responsive, and trustworthy lender, Lisa is the one to call! I look forward to continuing our partnership and highly recommend her to anyone in need of a top-notch mortgage expert.

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UMortgage is a national mortgage company that connects you with experienced mortgage brokers in your area. UMortgage's local Loan Officers use UMortgage's vast portfolio of lenders and loan products to ensure you get the most affordable mortgage possible that is tailored to your individual financial needs and homeownership goals.

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A mortgage is a loan used to buy a home, with the house serving as collateral until the loan is repaid. You make monthly payments that cover both the loan amount and interest across the life of the loan, which most commonly spans between 15-30 years.

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UMortgage offers expert services for all the major mortgage types: Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, and Jumbo Loans. UMortgage also offers rate & term refinances, cash-out refinances, VA IRRRLs, and FHA Streamlines. Get connected with a UMortgage Loan Officer to learn what type of mortgage will set you up for long-term financial success.

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Turn times vary from client to client, but UMortgage proudly gets clients from loan application (after you've had an offer accepted on a home) to the closing table in 2 weeks. You can read this blog for more insight into UMortgage's homebuying process.